January 26, 2006
Will Political Hamas Moderate?
A major real-world test of neoconservative ideology is about to happen. Hamas has won a big majority in the Palestinian Parliament. One of the basic principles of neoconservative ideology is that a lack of political freedom is the major factor that brings about terrorism. According to this principle, when people don't have the power to express their political opinions and frustrations peacefully through democracy and their only option to bring about political change is through violence, they are much more likely to commit violence. Conversely, if you give people the power to express their opinions and frustrations through the ballot box, as Palestinians have just done, they are much less likely to try to bring about their political views through violence. If what passes for a Palestinian government can continue with something that passes for a democracy, this idea will be put to the test in a real-world laboratory.
Another principle of neoconservative ideology is that when extremists suddenly have real democratic political power, they become more moderate because of the realities of democratic power. This principle says that Hamas will be less likely to attack Israel from now on because then Israel would counterattack, Hamas would get blamed for this and they would lose seats in the next election. When Hamas wasn't elected, they didn't have to worry so much about things like that. Now they do. Also, as the majority in the Parliament, Hamas will want to gain and then maintain international credibility. They're already facing lots of pressure from the U.S., for instance, to renounce their call to destroy Israel. Time will tell if they will do it or not. I certainly hope that these neoconservative ideologies get proven right because the idea of spreading peace through democracy seems to be about the only realistic option for stopping terrorism in the long-term.
Another principle of neoconservative ideology is that when extremists suddenly have real democratic political power, they become more moderate because of the realities of democratic power. This principle says that Hamas will be less likely to attack Israel from now on because then Israel would counterattack, Hamas would get blamed for this and they would lose seats in the next election. When Hamas wasn't elected, they didn't have to worry so much about things like that. Now they do. Also, as the majority in the Parliament, Hamas will want to gain and then maintain international credibility. They're already facing lots of pressure from the U.S., for instance, to renounce their call to destroy Israel. Time will tell if they will do it or not. I certainly hope that these neoconservative ideologies get proven right because the idea of spreading peace through democracy seems to be about the only realistic option for stopping terrorism in the long-term.
